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2020 Second QUARTER COMMENTARY

8/11/2020

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Bob Dylan, eleven years ago this month, in the rain, was picked up by police while wandering around Long Branch, NJ.  He was wearing a hooded raincoat, black sweatpants and rain boots. The officer, she didn't believe he was Bob Dylan.

He didn't carry ID.  He had stepped into the front yard of a house with a "For Sale" sign. The homeowners had called police, reported an "eccentric-looking old man" and followed him down the street.

Dylan explained to police he had been looking at the house for sale. Was he also looking for a nearby house where Bruce Springsteen lived in 1974-75? He did have a history of visiting the former homes of Neil Young and John Lennon.

After driving him to his tour buses parked at a nearby oceanfront resort, police verified Dylan's identity.

This story, black and white.  Dylan got a ride in the back of a police car.

Earlier this year, Ahmaud Arbery, also looking at a house, one under construction, was shot dead while the sun was shining, ambushed by three white men, one a former police officer.  Both Dylan and Arbery were in the wrong place at the wrong time, one subject of a quirky story; the other a tragedy.

Bob Dylan, poetically raw, real and beguiling, in his song “My Back Pages” sung about how hatred in the heart is not a pathway to love.  Though we might feel strife, though we might become angry, hate need not drive the behavior of our souls.
​
I’ll stop there.  It’s raining.
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2020 First QUARTER COMMENTARY

8/11/2020

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Today is a day that is filled with surprises,
Nobody knows what's gonna happen.
Anyone can be a fool and do things which are wrong
But fools find out, when it's too late, that they don't live so long
Oh, I'm no fool, no siree
I want to live to be 93
I play safe for you and me
'Cause I'm no fool

— songs written by Jimmie Dodd and sung by the Mouseketeers and Jiminy Cricket

The song “Anything Can Happen Day” conveys a feeling of the times, if you can forgive its perky joyousness.  Lest you think I’ve gone a bit loopy, my other favorite these days is the classic Disney song “I’m No Fool”.  Within these songs’ advisory warnings is contained my investment strategy’s intent: anything can happen, but I’m no fool.

Rates paid by U.S. government bonds are low, low, low, between 0 and 1%.  Stocks of healthcare, grocery staples and stay-at-home technology companies are high, high, high.

This is uncharted territory, a global health crisis, the economy plunging to depths similar to the Great Depression, at the speed of the 1987 stock market crash, from high prices rivalling the 2000 and 2007 bubbles.

We move across a spectrum of feelings that range from our worst nightmares to our happiest of dreams.  It’s bad and we know it, but the same could also be said of the good.

Collectively, we feel denial, shock and anger.  We have little common agreement, high uncertainty and stark group affiliation.

In a few words, it has been and will be chaos around what is out of our control.

Humanity’s best answers will be discovered, built up or gifted to us over time.
​
While we grieve, we also find time to be kind, grateful and compassionate.  Love and connectedness are not contained byviral outbreaks, economic transactions or political disputes.

We will move through this and, one day soon hopefully, out of it.
​
I plan on being steady, humble, careful and prudent.  Ourselves we can control.
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    eRIC w. bRIGHT, cfa

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